Tropical forests did not recover from the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event

Microwave satellite observations reveal that tropical forests did not recover from the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event. Severe drought and extreme heat associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño event have led to large carbon emissions from the tropical vegetation to the atmosphere. With the return to normal climatic conditions in 2017, tropical forest aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks are expected to partly recover due to increased productivity, but the intensity and spatial distribution of this recovery are unknown. We used low-frequency microwave satellite data (L-VOD) to feature precise monitoring of AGC changes and show that the AGC recovery of tropical ecosystems was slow and that by the end of 2017, AGC had not reached predrought levels of 2014. From 2014 to 2017, tropical AGC stocks decreased by 1.31.21.5 Pg C due to persistent AGC losses in Africa (−0.9−1.1−0.8 Pg C) and America (−0.5−0.6−0.4 Pg C). Pantropically, drylands recovered their carbon stocks to pre–El Niño levels, but African and American humid forests did not, suggesting carryover effects from enhanced forest mortality.

[1]  Nengcheng Chen,et al.  Satellite surface soil moisture from SMAP, SMOS, AMSR2 and ESA CCI: A comprehensive assessment using global ground-based observations , 2019, Remote Sensing of Environment.

[2]  F. Chevallier,et al.  Net carbon emissions from African biosphere dominate pan-tropical atmospheric CO2 signal , 2019, Nature Communications.

[3]  M. Goulden,et al.  California forest die-off linked to multi-year deep soil drying in 2012–2015 drought , 2019, Nature Geoscience.

[4]  Arnaud Mialon,et al.  Satellite-observed pantropical carbon dynamics , 2019, Nature Plants.

[5]  P. Richaume,et al.  Assessment and inter-comparison of recently developed/reprocessed microwave satellite soil moisture products using ISMN ground-based measurements , 2019, Remote Sensing of Environment.

[6]  P. Gentine,et al.  Projected increases in intensity, frequency, and terrestrial carbon costs of compound drought and aridity events , 2019, Science Advances.

[7]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches , 2018, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[8]  M. Keller,et al.  Post-drought decline of the Amazon carbon sink , 2018, Nature Communications.

[9]  P. Patra,et al.  Improved Chemical Tracer Simulation by MIROC4.0-based Atmospheric Chemistry-Transport Model (MIROC4-ACTM) , 2018 .

[10]  E. Mitchard.  The tropical forest carbon cycle and climate change , 2018, Nature.

[11]  Yi Y. Liu,et al.  Enhanced canopy growth precedes senescence in 2005 and 2010 Amazonian droughts , 2018, Remote Sensing of Environment.

[12]  S. Zaehle,et al.  How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO 2 data , 2018 .

[13]  Arnaud Mialon,et al.  Satellite passive microwaves reveal recent climate-induced carbon losses in African drylands , 2018, Nature Ecology & Evolution.

[14]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  Global Carbon Budget 2018 , 2014, Earth System Science Data.

[15]  P. Ciais,et al.  Vegetation greenness and land carbon-flux anomalies associated with climate variations: a focus on the year 2015 , 2017 .

[16]  J. Canadell,et al.  Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions , 2017, Nature Climate Change.

[17]  Dell,et al.  Contrasting carbon cycle responses of the tropical continents to the 2015–2016 El Niño , 2017, Science.

[18]  R. Houghton,et al.  Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss , 2017, Science.

[19]  A. Tsuruta,et al.  The CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) v1.0 : Implementation and global carbon balance 2001-2015 , 2017 .

[20]  Klaus Scipal,et al.  Coverage of high biomass forests by the ESA BIOMASS mission under defense restrictions , 2017 .

[21]  Alan Grainger,et al.  The extent of forest in dryland biomes , 2017, Science.

[22]  Arnaud Mialon,et al.  SMOS-IC: An Alternative SMOS Soil Moisture and Vegetation Optical Depth Product , 2017, Remote. Sens..

[23]  A. Al Bitar,et al.  Modelling the Passive Microwave Signature from Land Surfaces: A Review of Recent Results and Application to the L-Band SMOS SMAP Soil Moisture Retrieval Algorithms , 2017 .

[24]  Delphine Clara Zemp,et al.  Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks , 2017, Nature Communications.

[25]  José A. Sobrino,et al.  Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015–2016 , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[26]  Achim Zeileis,et al.  Remotely sensed resilience of tropical forests , 2016 .

[27]  N. Verhoest,et al.  GLEAM v3: satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture , 2016 .

[28]  Susan G. Letcher,et al.  Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics , 2016, Science Advances.

[29]  Arief Wijaya,et al.  An integrated pan‐tropical biomass map using multiple reference datasets , 2016, Global change biology.

[30]  Andrew A. Bishop,et al.  Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change , 2015 .

[31]  Nate G. McDowell,et al.  On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene , 2015 .

[32]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink , 2015, Science.

[33]  Matthew F. McCabe,et al.  Recent reversal in loss of global terrestrial biomass , 2015 .

[34]  J. Terborgh,et al.  Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink , 2015, Nature.

[35]  Damien Sulla-Menashe,et al.  A Global Land Cover Climatology Using MODIS Data , 2014 .

[36]  Yi Y. Liu,et al.  Contribution of semi-arid ecosystems to interannual variability of the global carbon cycle , 2014, Nature.

[37]  C. Justice,et al.  High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change , 2013, Science.

[38]  R. Nemani,et al.  Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canopy , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[39]  S. Goetz,et al.  Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps , 2012 .

[40]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests , 2011, Science.

[41]  K. Wolter,et al.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext) , 2011 .

[42]  W. Salas,et al.  Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[43]  O. Phillips,et al.  The 2010 Amazon Drought , 2011, Science.

[44]  Fabienne Maignan,et al.  CO2 surface fluxes at grid point scale estimated from a global 21 year reanalysis of atmospheric measurements , 2010 .

[45]  J. Terborgh,et al.  Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest , 2009, Science.

[46]  W. Kurz,et al.  Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change , 2008, Nature.

[47]  Y. Shimabukuro,et al.  Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts , 2007 .

[48]  Y. Hong,et al.  The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global, Multiyear, Combined-Sensor Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales , 2007 .

[49]  F. Achard,et al.  Challenges to estimating carbon emissions from tropical deforestation , 2007 .

[50]  A. Lugo,et al.  Climate Change and Forest Disturbances , 2001 .

[51]  S. Hubbell,et al.  Mortality Rates of 205 Neotropical Tree and Shrub Species and the Impact of a Severe Drought , 1995 .