A computer simulation model of diabetes progression, quality of life, and cost.

OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a comprehensive computer simulation model to assess the impact of screening, prevention, and treatment strategies on type 2 diabetes and its complications, comorbidities, quality of life, and cost. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The incidence of type 2 diabetes and its complications and comorbidities were derived from population-based epidemiologic studies and randomized, controlled clinical trials. Health utility scores were derived for patients with type 2 diabetes using the Quality of Well Being-Self-Administered. Direct medical costs were derived for managed care patients with type 2 diabetes using paid insurance claims. Monte Carlo techniques were used to implement a semi-Markov model. Performance of the model was assessed using baseline and 4- and 10-year follow-up data from the older-onset diabetic population studied in the Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy (WESDR). RESULTS Applying the model to the baseline WESDR population with type 2 diabetes, we predicted mortality to be 51% at 10 years. The prevalences of stroke and myocardial infarction were predicted to be 18 and 19% at 10 years. The prevalences of nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy, proliferative retinopathy, and macular edema were predicted to be 45, 16, and 18%, respectively; the prevalences of microalbuminuria, proteinuria, and end-stage renal disease were predicted to be 19, 39, and 3%, respectively; and the prevalences of clinical neuropathy and amputation were predicted to be 52 and 5%, respectively, at 10 years. Over 10 years, average undiscounted total direct medical costs were estimated to be USD $53,000 per person. Among survivors, the average utility score was estimated to be 0.56 at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS Our computer simulation model accurately predicted survival and the cardiovascular, microvascular, and neuropathic complications observed in the WESDR cohort with type 2 diabetes over 10 years. The model can be used to predict the progression of diabetes and its complications, comorbidities, quality of life, and cost and to assess the relative effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility of alternative strategies for the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes.

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