World energy to 2050: Outline scenarios for energy and electricity

Abstract This paper explores two outline scenarios for the year 2050. The one with a lower environmental impact involves a targeted efficiency future in which per capita energy use in the industrialized countries is halved by the year 2050, while in the developing countries it is doubled. The most important driving forces for future growth in demand in the developing countries are their increasing population and their need for more services requiring the use of energy and electricity. Less than doubling in per capita energy would imply unacceptable levels of growth in these services. In the targeted efficiency future world total commercial energy demand increases by more than 50%; the share arising from the developing countries increases from its present value of one-quarter of the total to nearly three-quarters of the total in the year 2050, and total carbon emissions increase. World electricity demand continues to increase, but the rate of growth becomes much lower than in the past, in response to improved efficiencies and saturation of demand in the industrialized countries, and to improved efficiencies and shortage of investment capital in the developing countries.