Work-Centered Approach to Insurgency Campaign Analysis

Abstract : This paper outlines the recent development of a prototype tool suite that implements a work-centered approach for insurgency campaign analysis. The analytical approach is built around the construction of a linked set of beliefs that form the work control structure of an insurgency movement and its operational campaign. The work control structure reflects a sensemaking model of how an organization such as an insurgency movement combines high level intent with work system capability to produce a stream of actions along various pathways of influence. The prototype tool suite enables the analyst to instantiate the set of beliefs with streams of observable events gleaned from intelligence reports and news reports. As these events are added to the model, the analyst uses them to adjust the evidentiary strengths of the belief elements and, ultimately, to identify emergent story lines that provide a plausible explanation of the insurgency movement's campaign strategy. The paper discusses how this approach offers advantages over existing methods of intelligence analysis. It then outlines the functional architecture of the tool suite and provides a brief hypothetical illustration of how it can be used to address the complexity of a modern insurgency movement.