Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept using Monte Carlo Simulation

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of all air traffic control systems. A probabilistic risk analysis of a next-generation air traffic control operational concept was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. Results indicate that this safety-critical system would have a mean time between mid-air collisions of about 281 years in enroute airspace, which is around the desired target for an automated separation assurance function. Among the simulation trials that ended with mid-air collision, most involved failure to locate and track aircraft through radar or satellite positioning systems with the remainder due to conflict detection failure.

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