Quantitative Model and Metrics of Electrical Grids’ Resilience Evaluated at a Power Distribution Level

This paper presents a framework to systematically measure and assess power grids’ resilience with a focus on performance as perceived by customers at the power distribution level. The proposed framework considers an analogous measure of availability as a basic metric for resilience and defines other key resilience-related concepts and metrics, such as resistance and brittleness. This framework also provides a measurement for the degree of functional dependency of loads on power grids and demonstrates how the concepts of resilience and dependency are inherently related. It also discusses the implications of considering human-centered processes as fundamental constituting components of infrastructure systems. Thanks to its quantitative nature, the proposed resilience framework enables the creation of tools to evaluate power grids’ performance as a lifeline and to assess the effects of plans for optimal electrical power infrastructure deployment and operation. The discussion is supported by practical examples and empirical records from field damage assessments conducted after recent notable natural disasters.

[1]  Min Ouyang,et al.  Time-dependent resilience assessment and improvement of urban infrastructure systems. , 2012, Chaos.

[2]  Alexis Kwasinski,et al.  Characterization of power system outages caused by hurricanes through localized intensity indices , 2013, 2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting.

[3]  Pierluigi Mancarella,et al.  The Grid: Stronger, Bigger, Smarter? , 2015 .

[4]  Royce A. Francis,et al.  A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[5]  Min Ouyang,et al.  Resilience Modeling and Simulation of Smart Grids , 2011 .

[6]  A. Kwasinski,et al.  Technology Planning for Electric Power Supply in Critical Events Considering a Bulk Grid, Backup Power Plants, and Micro-Grids , 2010, IEEE Systems Journal.

[7]  Leire Labaka,et al.  Resilience framework for critical infrastructures: An empirical study in a nuclear plant , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[8]  Pierluigi Mancarella,et al.  Modeling and Evaluating the Resilience of Critical Electrical Power Infrastructure to Extreme Weather Events , 2017, IEEE Systems Journal.

[9]  Thomas B. Sheridan,et al.  Risk, Human Error, and System Resilience: Fundamental Ideas , 2008, Hum. Factors.

[10]  Alexis Kwasinski,et al.  Availability Evaluation of Micro-Grids for Resistant Power Supply During Natural Disasters , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid.

[11]  Amro M. Farid,et al.  Static Resilience of Large Flexible Engineering Systems: Axiomatic Design Model and Measures , 2017, IEEE Systems Journal.

[12]  J. Momoh Centralized and Distributed Generated Power Systems-A Comparison Approach , 2012 .

[13]  Richard G. Little,et al.  Toward more robust infrastructure: observations on improving the resilience and reliability of critical systems , 2003, 36th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2003. Proceedings of the.

[14]  About Enisa Measurement Frameworks and Metrics for Resilient Networks and Services: Challenges and Recommendations , 2011 .

[15]  B. Obama Presidential Policy Directive 21: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience , 2013 .

[16]  Linda K. Nozick,et al.  Transmission and Generation Expansion to Mitigate Seismic Risk , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[17]  J. A. Volpe,et al.  National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners , 2000 .

[18]  K. C. Kapur,et al.  Methodology for Assessing the Resilience of Networked Infrastructure , 2009, IEEE Systems Journal.

[19]  Alexis Kwasinski,et al.  Local energy storage as a decoupling mechanism for interdependent infrastructures , 2011, 2011 IEEE International Systems Conference.

[20]  Ronald E. Fisher,et al.  Constructing a resilience index for the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection Program , 2010 .

[21]  Cesar A. Silva-Monroy,et al.  Conceptual Framework for Developing Resilience Metrics for the Electricity, Oil, and Gas Sectors in the United States , 2014 .

[22]  David Pinney,et al.  Achieving a Resilient and Agile Grid , 2014 .

[23]  Chuanyi Ji,et al.  Non-Stationary Random Process for Large-Scale Failure and Recovery of Power Distributions , 2012, ArXiv.

[24]  Min Ouyang,et al.  Resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems: With a focus on joint restoration modeling and analysis , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[25]  Enrico Zio,et al.  Reliability engineering: Old problems and new challenges , 2009, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[26]  Ross Baldick,et al.  Research on Resilience of Power Systems Under Natural Disasters—A Review , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[27]  John Yen,et al.  Analyzing the Resilience of Complex Supply Network Topologies Against Random and Targeted Disruptions , 2011, IEEE Systems Journal.

[28]  Andrés Silva,et al.  A modeling framework for the resilience analysis of networked systems-of-systems based on functional dependencies , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[29]  Pierluigi Mancarella,et al.  The Grid: Stronger, Bigger, Smarter?: Presenting a Conceptual Framework of Power System Resilience , 2015, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine.

[30]  A. Kwasinski,et al.  Development of a Markov-Chain-Based Energy Storage Model for Power Supply Availability Assessment of Photovoltaic Generation Plants , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[31]  Azad M. Madni,et al.  Towards a Conceptual Framework for Resilience Engineering , 2009, IEEE Systems Journal.

[32]  Alexis Kwasinski,et al.  Microgrids and other Local Area Power and Energy Systems , 2016 .

[33]  Jonas Lundberg,et al.  Systemic resilience model , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[34]  Eric D. Vugrin,et al.  Advancing Cyber Resilience Analysis with Performance-Based Metrics from Infrastructure Assessments , 2012, Int. J. Secur. Softw. Eng..

[35]  Stefan Gößling-Reisemann,et al.  Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions in Northwest Germany , 2015 .

[36]  Wenyu Jiang,et al.  Modeling of Packet Loss and Delay and Their Effect on Real-Time Multimedia Service Quality , 2000 .

[37]  David D. Woods,et al.  Four concepts for resilience and the implications for the future of resilience engineering , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[38]  Michael Siegrist,et al.  How a Nuclear Power Plant Accident Influences Acceptance of Nuclear Power: Results of a Longitudinal Study Before and After the Fukushima Disaster , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[39]  A. Kwasinski Examination of power supply options for communication sites operating in grid-islanded environments , 2012, Intelec 2012.

[40]  T. J. Overbye Engineering resilient cyber-physical systems , 2012, 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting.

[41]  Alexis Kwasinski Field technical surveys: An essential tool for improving critical infrastructure and lifeline systems resiliency to disasters , 2014, IEEE Global Humanitarian Technology Conference (GHTC 2014).

[42]  Anas AlMajali,et al.  Analyzing Resiliency of the Smart Grid Communication Architectures under Cyber Attack , 2012, CSET.

[43]  Sahra Sedigh Sarvestani,et al.  Analysis of Reliability and Resilience for Smart Grids , 2014, 2014 IEEE 38th Annual Computer Software and Applications Conference.