Forecasting Terrorism: Indicators and Proven Analytic Techniques

This forecasting methodology identifies 68 indicators of terrorism and employs proven analytic techniques in a systematic process that safeguards against 36 of the 42 common warning pitfalls that experts have identified throughout history. The complete version of this research provides: 1) a step-by-step explanation of how to forecast terrorism, 2) an evaluation of the forecasting system against the 42 common warning pitfalls that have caused warning failures in the past, and 3) recommendations for implementation. The associated CD has the website interface to this methodology to forecast terrorist attacks. This methodology could be applied to any intelligence topic (not just terrorism) by simply changing the list of indicators. The complete version of this research is available in Forecasting Terrorism: Indicators and Proven Analytic Techniques, Scarecrow Press, Inc., ISBN 0-8108-5017-6.