Long-term Perspectives for Carbon Capture in Power Plants: Scenarios for the 21st Century

The report analyzes the role of fossil-fired power plants equipped with carbon capture systems in long-term scenarios of the global energy system representing technological change as an endogenous process. Within this framework the impacts of a technology policy is illustrated that requires over time an increasing fraction of fossil-fired power generation to incorporate carbon capture technologies. In particular, we examine the potential costs and the contribution that such a policy could offer in reducing energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and highlight some of the technologies that may play a role in doing so. The analysis is carried out with the global energysystems optimization MESSAGE model (Messner and Strubegger 1995) considering endogenous technology learning for fossil power plants and the corresponding carbon capture technologies, such that they experience cost reductions as a function of accumulated capacity installations. The report describes two baseline scenarios: (1) including learning for fossil power plants and (2) the other with no learning. In addition, the analysis examines three cases that are based on a technology policy that enforces an increasing share of fossil fuel power plants with carbon capture, distinguishing between future worlds assuming: (1) no learning for fossil systems, (2) learning just for the carbon capture component, and (3) full learning for the reference plants as well as for the carbon capture systems. The analysis shows that the introduction of a policy for carbon capture and storage would lead to considerable reductions in carbon emissions in the electricity sector and major changes in the power generation mix. Technologies are chosen, that provide the most cost-effective combination between electricity generation and carbon capture, fostering the penetration of advanced fossil technologies. In particular, coal gasification systems such as, IGCC power plants and high temperature fuel cells, and in addition gas-fired combined cycle power plants appear as the most attractive fossil-fired electricity generation options.

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