Vulnerability of the Indus Delta toClimate Change in Pakistan

Climate has been experiencing a rapidly changing trend embedded with the increased frequency and intensity of extreme events in Pakistan due to global warming. The Indus Delta is a vast tract of fertile land feeding a large proportion of population with food and fiber. Although it is composed of low lying areas of the Indus irrigated plain but the changes occurring in the climatic conditions of the extreme north also directly affect through water deficit or surplus. The Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush region, which hosts world’s third largest ice mass after the poles, has warmed up more than 1.5 °C almost double than remaining parts of Pakistan (0.76 °C) during last three decades. Increased frequency of torrential rains, prolonged heat waves, frequent tropical cyclones, recurring flooding and persistent drought are the phenomenal changes experienced this deltaic region. Rapid melting of glaciers in the north is not only contributing to floods downstream rather it results into sea level rise. Resultantly, intrusion of saline sea water into the fertile land has been destroying the fertile agricultural land. Wind is a great natural resource possessing huge socio-economic benefits if augmented but increased intensity of storm surges and invasion of tropical cyclones are the great threats to infrastructure. Erratic behavior of monsoon precipitation has resulted in degradation of rangeland and further deterioration of the already degraded cultivated land areas such as those suffering from water erosion, wind erosion, water-logging, salinity etc. Future climate projections indicate that at least 5 °C rise in temperature over the Indus Delta is expected by the end of 21st century. Due to this increase in temperature, domestic, animal and crop water requirements will rise 1.5 times over the present levels. Over the time population increased but water reservoirs were not developed at the same pace therefore Pakistan entered in the list of water deficit countries. Water availability will further decrease reducing the per capita share. Precipitation pattern is going to be highly variable. Poverty, lack of resources and low adaptive capacity of the local population of the Indus Delta to climate change has been exaggerating the vulnerabilities and posing challenges to sustainable food production.