How negative can biofuels with CCS take us and at what cost? Refining the economic potential of biofuel production with CCS using spatially-explicit modeling☆

Abstract Global integrated assessment models indicate the importance of technologies that can achieve negative emissions in scenarios that limit warming to 2˚C over pre-industrial levels. One of the most promising options for achieving negative emissions is the production of electricity or fuels using biomass coupled with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Given that the transport sector is relatively difficult to decarbonize, BECCS can be particularly valuable for reducing the carbon intensity of transport fuels. This paper combines spatially-explicit biorefinery siting and CCS infrastructure models to examine the potential for biofuels with CCS in the United States. The outputs provide insight into the optimal deployment of biorefineries with CCS from 2020 to 2050, including an assessment of the magnitude of the required infrastructure and identification of regional storage constraints. Furthermore, the model identifies the average biofuel production cost at each site and develops geospatial supply curves, abatement cost curves, and negative emission potentials for biofuels with CCS over time.