Dynamical analysis on influencing factors of grain production in Henan Province based on grey systems theory

The 30 years (from 1979 to 2009 year) of grain production in Henan Province is divided into three periods. Based on the statistical data of grain yield and main influencing factors of grain production in Henan Province in different period, we calculate the grey incidence degree between grain yield and every influencing factor by grey incidence analysis method from grey systems theory respectively, then get the grey incidence order of influencing factors in every period. Through contrasting and analyzing the three grey incidence orders of influencing factors from different periods, we find a changeable tendency of influencing factors on grain production and key influencing factors in different period. Finally, to speed up the Henan traditional farming to the modern agriculture transformation, and keep Henan province grain production stable, several policy suggestions are given out.