Spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between vegetation dynamics and climate change and their driving forces at multiple time scales in Southwest China

Abstract Under global climate change, relationship between vegetation dynamics and climate change is vital for vegetation conservation and restoration in fragile ecological system. However, the relationships at multiple time scales are unclear. Based on the Ensemble empirical mode decomposition method (EEMD), we revealed the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation dynamics and its relationship with climate change at multiple time scales in Southwest China during 1982–2015. Vegetation dynamics can be divided into 3-, 6-, 14-, and 32-year time scale oscillations with an increasing trend. Hereinto, the 3-year time scale and the increasing trend are dominant. In Guangxi and north of Guizhou provinces, vegetation dynamics was dominated by the long-term trend, whereas in the other areas it was dominated by the 3-year time scale. With increasing time scale, the impact of climate change became more pronounced. The relationship between vegetation dynamics and temperature in growing season was determined by elevation and vegetation type at the 3- and 6-year time scales, but only by vegetation type over the long-term trend. The relationship between vegetation dynamics and precipitation was driven by karst landform and vegetation type at the 3-year time scale, by precipitation amount at the 6-year time scale, and by karst landform and elevation over the long-term trend. Based on multivariate regression analysis with multiple time scale analysis, climate change had a good and significant interpretation on vegetation dynamics in 54.1% of the study area. Specifically, in Guangxi and north of Guizhou provinces, the impact of climate change on vegetation dynamics was greater than that of human activities. Our findings showed that multiple time scale analysis might facilitate a better understanding of the mechanisms of vegetation dynamics, and provide scientific knowledge on vegetation restoration and conservation in fragile ecosystems.

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