Non-linear time series analysis of precipitation events using regional climate networks for Germany

AbstractSynchronous occurrences of heavy rainfall events and the study of their relation in time and space are of large socio-economical relevance, for instance for the agricultural and insurance sectors, but also for the general well-being of the population. In this study, the spatial synchronization structure is analyzed as a regional climate network constructed from precipitation event series. The similarity between event series is determined by the number of synchronous occurrences. We propose a novel standardization of this number that results in synchronization scores which are not biased by the number of events in the respective time series. Additionally, we introduce a new version of the network measure directionality that measures the spatial directionality of weighted links by also taking account of the effects of the spatial embedding of the network. This measure provides an estimate of heavy precipitation isochrones by pointing out directions along which rainfall events synchronize. We propose a climatological interpretation of this measure in terms of propagating fronts or event traces and confirm it for Germany by comparing our results to known atmospheric circulation patterns.

[1]  Michael T. Gastner,et al.  The spatial structure of networks , 2006 .

[2]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Analysis of spatial and temporal extreme monsoonal rainfall over South Asia using complex networks , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[3]  P A Robinson,et al.  Geometric effects on complex network structure in the cortex. , 2011, Physical review letters.

[4]  Paul J. Roebber,et al.  What Do Networks Have to Do with Climate , 2006 .

[5]  Milan Paluš,et al.  Discerning connectivity from dynamics in climate networks , 2011 .

[6]  L. Barnett,et al.  Spatially embedded random networks. , 2007, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[7]  R Quian Quiroga,et al.  Event synchronization: a simple and fast method to measure synchronicity and time delay patterns. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[8]  Norbert Marwan,et al.  The backbone of the climate network , 2009, 1002.2100.

[9]  S. Schubert,et al.  MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications , 2011 .

[10]  S. Havlin,et al.  Stability of Climate Networks with Time , 2011, Scientific Reports.

[11]  Nitesh V. Chawla,et al.  Multivariate and multiscale dependence in the global climate system revealed through complex networks , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[12]  Delphine Clara Zemp,et al.  Node-weighted measures for complex networks with directed and weighted edges for studying continental moisture recycling , 2014 .

[13]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Complex networks identify spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events of the South American Monsoon System , 2013 .

[14]  Henk A. Dijkstra,et al.  Are North Atlantic multidecadal SST anomalies westward propagating? , 2014 .

[15]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Download details: IP Address: 193.174.18.1 , 2011 .

[16]  Norbert Marwan,et al.  The South American rainfall dipole: A complex network analysis of extreme events , 2014 .

[17]  Gerd Tetzlaff,et al.  Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: Role of cyclone pathway ''Zugstrasse Vb'' , 2004 .

[18]  N Marwan,et al.  Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach , 2014, Nature Communications.

[19]  Jurgen Kurths,et al.  Node-weighted measures for complex networks with spatially embedded, sampled, or differently sized nodes , 2011, The European Physical Journal B.

[20]  I. Ebert‐Uphoff,et al.  A new type of climate network based on probabilistic graphical models: Results of boreal winter versus summer , 2012 .

[21]  S. Havlin,et al.  Climate networks around the globe are significantly affected by El Niño. , 2008, Physical review letters.

[22]  Nitesh V. Chawla,et al.  An exploration of climate data using complex networks , 2009, SensorKDD '09.

[23]  S. Havlin,et al.  Pattern of climate network blinking links follows El Niño events , 2008 .