A SIMULATION BASED DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT APPROACH FOR MACHINE-BUILDING PLANTS INVESTMENT PROJECTS ESTIMATION OF EFFICIENCY

Methods and software enabling the estimation of efficiency and the comparisons of alternative designs of machine-building plants are discussed. Problem of efficiency estimation for investment projects of machine-building plants is formulated in the terms of decision theory. Presented approach is based on the reduction of multicriterion problem of estimation of investment project to one-criterion problem. This paper describes: the structure of set of outcomes of admissible alternatives, set of vectorial estimations of outcomes, mapping of set of outcomes of acceptable alternatives to set of vectorial estimations of outcomes and structure of decision maker’s preferences. Decision rule which allows carrying out required operation over the set of admissible alternatives is formulated. Application of simulation for estimation of technological and structural decisions, which was made during the plant design, is the central feature of presented approach. Designed simulation model refers to discrete-event class. Object-oriented approach was applied for designing of the model and programming language C++ for its implementation. Application of detailed simulation model of production line allows carrying out an accurate estimation of technological and structural characteristics of involved projects. Presented methodology of estimation of investment projects of machine-building plants is tried-and-true method which applies on the phase of designing and engineering of machine-building plant. The presented approach is discussed on the example of foundry plant with moulding line.