Evaluation of human losses from disasters: The case of the 2010 heat waves and forest fires in Russia

Abstract The paper briefly overviews the existing methodologies for evaluation of the economic losses incurred by premature and additional deaths provoked by natural and technological disasters. The methodology routinely employed by the responsible governmental agency in Russia is critically analyzed. An improved methodology based on welfare theory and international comparison approach is introduced and applied to evaluate losses from the heat waves and wildfires' impact on the Moscow region in summer 2010. The calculation procedures and the basic findings are disclosed. An alternative methodology based on actuarial approach and the value of statistical life (VSL) concept is used to both contrast and verify the findings obtained. It is argued that these findings should be considered as a guide or recommendation to improve the legal and methodological bases existing in Russia for evaluation of the losses associated with premature and additional mortality provoked by disasters.