Analyzing and visualizing the synergistic impact mechanisms of climate change related costs

We create pattern constructs for synergistic mechanisms of climate related factors.We formulate a local scale model forecasting the climate related cost distribution.We provide the framework for efficient computation of this model in Mathematica. One climate related phenomenon could affect many more. The direct costs associated to climate related factors pass to a number of other climate related costs through the indirect economic consequences of climate change. In this paper we propose a mathematical model which aims to provide forecasts of the distribution of the costs caused by the synergistic mechanism of environmental effects. The model is created to be directly applied to situations where the primary costs associated to climate related factors can be specified. It is expressed in matrix terms and is programmed using Mathematica's matrix functions. We provide the framework for efficient computation of this model, covering possible linear and nonlinear functions of the impact mechanism for costs and, infinite direct cost scenarios. Some directions for the quantitative estimation of impact indicators and adaptation potentials of the costs incurred by certain climate related factors are included, in order to apply the proposed model using real socioeconomic data.

[1]  Attila Szolnoki,et al.  Averting group failures in collective-risk social dilemmas , 2012, ArXiv.

[2]  András Bárdossy,et al.  Network design for the spatial estimation of environmental variables , 1983 .

[3]  H. Reid,et al.  Climate change impacts on Namibia's natural resources and economy , 2008 .

[4]  George M. Hornberger,et al.  Selection of parameter values in environmental models using sparse data: A case study , 1985 .

[5]  Amy Luers,et al.  Illustrating the coupled human–environment system for vulnerability analysis: Three case studies , 2003, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[6]  Russell F. Doolittle.  The Future of Life , 2002, Nature Medicine.

[7]  I. Bogardi,et al.  Impact of global climate change on temperature and precipitation in Greece , 1995 .

[8]  C. Mantyka‐Pringle,et al.  Interactions between climate and habitat loss effects on biodiversity: a systematic review and meta‐analysis , 2012 .

[9]  Attila Szolnoki,et al.  Wisdom of groups promotes cooperation in evolutionary social dilemmas , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[10]  I. Wing.  Computable General Equilibrium Models for the Analysis of Energy and Climate Policies , 2009 .

[11]  E. Barbier.  Valuing Environmental Functions: Tropical Wetlands , 1994 .

[12]  Attila Szolnoki,et al.  Risk-driven migration and the collective-risk social dilemma , 2012, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[13]  T. Stocker,et al.  Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2012 .

[14]  R. Kelty,et al.  NOAA coral reef ecosystem research plan for fiscal years 2007 to 2011 , 2007 .

[15]  K. Ebi,et al.  Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment , 2006, Environmental health perspectives.

[16]  Mark Rounsevell,et al.  Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[17]  Mária Csete,et al.  Modeling methodologies of synergic effects related to climate change and sustainable energy management , 2010 .

[18]  D. Mills.  Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and US Health Impacts: What Can We Say? , 2009, Journal of occupational and environmental medicine.

[19]  Alain Bernard,et al.  GEMINI-E3, a general equilibrium model of international–national interactions between economy, energy and the environment , 2008, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[20]  Andrej Pázman,et al.  Nonlinear Regression , 2019, Handbook of Regression Analysis With Applications in R.

[21]  Attila Szolnoki,et al.  Coevolutionary Games - A Mini Review , 2009, Biosyst..

[22]  C. Kolstad,et al.  The Economics of Climate Policy , 2005 .

[23]  Matjaz Perc,et al.  Collective behavior and evolutionary games - An introduction , 2013, 1306.2296.

[24]  Attila Szolnoki,et al.  Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review , 2013, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[25]  M. Granger Morgan,et al.  Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment , 2003 .

[26]  A. Shvidenko.  Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis , 2005 .

[27]  George Frisvold,et al.  Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries , 1998 .

[28]  Ralph A. Luken,et al.  Economic Valuation Techniques for the Environment: a Case Study Workbook , 1987 .

[29]  K. Strzepek,et al.  Households' welfare analyses of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa , 2008 .

[30]  S. Robinson,et al.  A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS , 2002 .

[31]  Millenium Ecosystem Assessment.  Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis , 2005 .