IMPROVED DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR RURAL WORK TRIPS

A critical review of the most widely accepted rural demand estimation models is performed. Based on data collected in two rural towns, a disaggregate specification for rural work-trip modal choice is proposed. The new model includes a set of socioeconomic and a set of policy-relevant variables and can be used for implementing a wide range of transportation policies to improve rural transit system performance. Model variables produce coefficients consistent with the notion, recently found in the literature, that rural commuters are more sensitive to fiscal variables than are urban commuters. Results from comparison tests suggest that demand prediction with the proposed specification is significantly (up to 88 percent) better than with the best of the existing models. (Author)