Identification of severe accident uncertainties

Understanding of severe accidents in light-water reactors is currently beset with uncertainty. Because the uncertainties that are present limit the capability to analyze the progression and possible consequences of such accidents, they restrict the technical basis for regulatory actions by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). It is thus necessary to attempt to identify the sources and quantify the influence of these uncertainties. As a part of ongoing NRC severe-accident programs at Sandia National Laboratories, a working group was formed to pool relevant knowledge and experience in assessing the uncertainties attending present (1983) knowledge of severe accidents. This initial report of the Severe Accident Uncertainty Analysis (SAUNA) working group has as its main goal the identification of a consolidated list of uncertainties that affect in-plant processes and systems. Many uncertainties have been identified. A set of key uncertainties summarizes many of the identified uncertainties. Quantification of the influence of these uncertainties, a necessary second step, is not attempted in the present report, although attempts are made qualitatively to demonstrate the relevance of the identified uncertainties.