Stock Rebuilding Strategies under Uncertainty: The Case for "Sentinel Fisheries."

The 1992 moratorium on the Northern cod stock broke ground in fisheries management by setting commercial quotas at zero for a stock previously exploited annually on the order of 200 thousand tonnes. The initial two-year moratorium eliminated tens of thousands of jobs in harvesting and processing and necessitated massive aid to Atlantic Canada. Evidence from other major cod stocks in the North Atlantic show that despite apparent stock collapses, commercial fishing at reduced levels throughout periods of stock decline have not precipitated commercial extinction. This paper evaluates the impact on the fishery system of closing the Northern cod fishery versus a strategy of a controlled but reduced "sentinel fishery" (see Fisheries Resource Conservation Council 1994). Comparisons are made with other cod stocks in the North Atlantic. To evaluate alternative stock rebuilding strategies, a bioeconomic model of the Northern cod stock is presented. Finally, current policy reaction to the crisis is compared with the quantitative analysis of information from a controlled fishery devised to operate in coordination with the commercial sector.