Shipping noise predictions: Capabilities and limitations

This paper presents an example of the impact on the noise of relying only on the Historical Temporal Shipping (HITS) model for a site near San Diego. The paper presents an argument against using the HITS model to predict trends in the speed and length of the world's shipping fleet. Also presented is the example that illustrates the extent of the disparity in noise predictions that can occur due to differences in the acoustic propagation and the environmental model components of a noise model. An additional example illustrates the impact on the noise of underestimating the coastal shipping components. The paper presents and summarizes the results obtained.