Strategic Port Choice Model for Worldwide Container Flows

A strategic explanatory model for the movement of container volumes on a global scale has been developed and applied on a selected number of scenarios. The objective of the model is the ability to assess shifts in route and port use as a result of changes in, among other things, port characteristics, network characteristics and local or global price policies. The model is able to predict the yearly container flows to and from all countries using 437 major and minor container ports around the world, and taking into account more than 800 realistic maritime container line services. Import, export and transshipment flows of containers at ports are distinguished by the model. The model was calibrated against observed 2006 data. A number of scenarios are presented to show the potentials of the model.