Predictors of incident epilepsy in older adults

Objective: To determine the prevalence, incidence, and predictors of epilepsy among older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Methods: We analyzed data prospectively collected in CHS and merged with data from outpatient Medicare administrative claims. We identified cases with epilepsy using self-report, antiepileptic medication, hospitalization discharge ICD-9 codes, and outpatient Medicare ICD-9 codes. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify factors independently associated with incident epilepsy. Results: At baseline, 42% of the 5,888 participants were men and 84% were white. At enrollment, 3.7% (215 of 5,888) met the criteria for prevalent epilepsy. During 14 years of follow-up totaling 48,651 person-years, 120 participants met the criteria for incident epilepsy, yielding an incidence rate of 2.47 per 1,000 person-years. The period prevalence of epilepsy by the end of follow-up was 5.7% (335 of 5,888). Epilepsy incidence rates were significantly higher among blacks than nonblacks: 4.44 vs 2.17 per 1,000 person-years (p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, risk of incident epilepsy was significantly higher among blacks compared to nonblacks (hazard ratio [HR] 4.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.99–8.17), those 75 to 79 compared to those 65 to 69 years of age (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.21–3.55), and those with history of stroke (HR 3.49, 95% CI 1.37–8.88). Conclusions: Epilepsy in older adults in the United States was common. Blacks, the very old, and those with history of stroke have a higher risk of incident epilepsy. The association with race remains unexplained.

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