Resilience of initiatives to shifting management priorities under emergent and future conditions

Attention of industry, government, and academia has been directed toward the design and implementation of systems which are resilient against external and internal stressors and disruptions. However, less attention has been paid to assessing the resilience of these initiatives to shifting strategic plans precipitated by changes in management priorities. While a particular infrastructure asset or technology may be resilient in a given scenario, the overriding strategic plan may be vulnerable to changes in decision maker preferences, regulatory restrictions, or other emergent shifts in values and objectives. In this paper, we describe scenario planning and decision making tools that may be used to assess the resilience of initiatives across a multitude of emergent conditions, including changing management priorities. Two case studies are presented in which this framework was applied: 1) creating sustainable biofuel supply chains for the aviation industry, and 2) prioritization of infrastructure development opportunities in Afghanistan.

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