Value of Research on Safety Effects of Actions

Money should be spent on research that promises the most value for the dollar, but how does one estimate the value of research? This paper suggests a logical and quantitative approach for estimating the dollar value of a class of proposed road safety research projects that aim to estimate the safety effects of various actions. The purpose of such research is to improve the ability to predict the safety effects of future actions because more accurate predictions would result in fewer incorrect decisions. With more correct decisions, investment is more cost-effective. This final outcome is what gives such research its value. The task of assigning a dollar value to proposed research is doable. The logic and the computations are described. The estimated dollar value, when coupled with the cost of research, can be used to prioritize proposed research projects.

[1]  George Woodworth Modeling in Medical Decision Making: A Bayesian Approach , 2007 .

[2]  Nicky J Welton,et al.  Preventive strategies for group B streptococcal and other bacterial infections in early infancy: cost effectiveness and value of information analyses , 2007, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[3]  D Meltzer,et al.  Addressing uncertainty in medical cost-effectiveness analysis implications of expected utility maximization for methods to perform sensitivity analysis and the use of cost-effectiveness analysis to set priorities for medical research. , 2001, Journal of health economics.

[4]  Laura Bojke,et al.  Priority setting for research in health care: An application of value of information analysis to glycoprotein IIb/IIIa antagonists in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome , 2006, International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care.

[5]  K Claxton,et al.  The irrelevance of inference: a decision-making approach to the stochastic evaluation of health care technologies. , 1999, Journal of health economics.

[6]  J. Berger Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis , 1988 .

[7]  Jonathan Cave,et al.  Research Planning for Food Safety: A Value-of-Information Approach , 1991 .

[8]  H. Raiffa,et al.  Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory , 1996 .

[9]  Fumie Yokota,et al.  Value of Information Literature Analysis: A Review of Applications in Health Risk Management , 2004, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[10]  Howard Raiffa,et al.  Applied Statistical Decision Theory. , 1961 .

[11]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Information Value Theory , 1966, IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern..

[12]  Alan Brennan,et al.  Efficient computation of partial expected value of sample information using Bayesian approximation. , 2007, Journal of health economics.

[13]  F. J. Anscombe,et al.  Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics under Uncertainty. , 1959 .

[14]  Dennis V. Lindley,et al.  An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision , 1974 .

[15]  A E Ades,et al.  Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations in Medical Decision Modeling , 2004, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[16]  Karl Claxton,et al.  Identifying Research Priorities: The Value of Information Associated with Repeat Screening for Age-Related Macular Degeneration , 2008, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[17]  Andrew R Willan,et al.  The value of information and optimal clinical trial design , 2005, Statistics in medicine.

[18]  John D. Graham,et al.  Going beyond the single number: Using probabilistic risk assessment to improve risk management , 1996 .

[19]  Rune Elvik,et al.  The Handbook of Road Safety Measures , 2009 .

[20]  David O Meltzer,et al.  Comparative effectiveness research for antipsychotic medications: how much is enough? , 2009, Health affairs.

[21]  David J Torgerson,et al.  Setting priorities for research. , 2004, Health policy.

[22]  K Claxton,et al.  An economic approach to clinical trial design and research priority-setting. , 1996, Health economics.

[23]  M. Sculpher,et al.  Using Value of Information Analysis to Prioritise Health Research , 2012, PharmacoEconomics.