Safeguards design for a plutonium concentrator: An applied estimation approach

Abstract In this paper we consider the design of a nonlinear estimator to be used in conjunction with on-line detectors for a plutonium nitrate concentrator. Using a complex state-of-the-art process model to simulate ‘realistic’ data, we show that the estimator performance using a simplified process model is adequate over a wide range of operation. The estimator is used to simulate and characterize some on-line diversion detectors, i.e. detectors designed to indicate if some of the critical special nuclear material in process is stolen or diverted from the unit. Simulation results indicate that the estimators and detectors yielded reasonable performance for the scenarios investigated.