A Methodology to Estimate Changes in Statistical Life Expectancy Due to the Control of Particulate Matter in Air Pollution

Studies in the United States have shown that those living in less polluted cities live longer than those living in more polluted cities. After adjustments for other factors, an association remained between ambient concentrations of fine particles and shorter life expectancy. This paper presents a methodology to apply the findings of these epidemiological studies to scenarios to control fine particulate matter in Europe and to estimate the resulting losses in statistical life expectancy that can be attributed to particulate matter pollution. Calculations are carried out for all of Europe with a 50*50 km resolution, distinguishing higher PM2.5 levels in urban areas. The methodology uses population statistics and projections from the United Nations, and applies changes in mortality risk identified by the epidemiological studies to the life tables for the individual countries. The preliminary implementation suggests that, for constant 1990 pollution levels, statistical life expectancy is reduced by approximately 500 days (95 percent confidence interval ranging from 168 - 888 days). By 2010, the control measures presently decided for emissions of primary particles and the precursors of secondary aerosols are expected to reduce these losses to about 280 days (94 -497), while the theoretical maximum technically feasible emission reductions could bring reduced life expectancy below 200 (65 -344) days. While the quantifications in this study must be considered as preliminary, the methodology will allow the introduction of health impacts from fine particulate matter into a multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework so that control measures can be explored taking full account of their ancillary benefits for acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone.

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