MEDEX: a fuzzy system for forecasting Mediterranean gale force winds

This paper presents an implementation of a fuzzy rule-based system for predicting the onset and cessation of seven gale-force winds in the Mediterranean region. The rules were compiled by several meteorological experts, and implemented using a commercial software package. Significant issues included the specification of loosely defined variables, and the treatment of the system user's uncertainty and inexperience. Preliminary results show predicted wind onset and cessation likelihoods consistent with the experts' expectations and actual weather observations.