AN “ENVIRO‐INFORMATIC” ASSESSMENT OF SAGINAW BAY (LAKE HURON, USA) PHYTOPLANKTON: DATA‐DRIVEN CHARACTERIZATION AND MODELING OF MICROCYSTIS (CYANOPHYTA) 1

Phytoplankton and Microcystis aeruginosa (Kütz.) Kütz. biovolumes were characterized and modeled, respectively, with regard to hydrological and meteorological variables during zebra mussel invasion in Saginaw Bay (1990–1996). Total phytoplankton and Microcystis biomass within the inner bay were one and one‐half and six times greater, respectively, than those of the outer bay. Following mussel invasion, mean total biomass in the inner bay decreased 84% but then returned to its approximate initial value. Microcystis was not present in the bay during 1990 and 1991 and thereafter occurred at/in 52% of sample sites/dates with the greatest biomass occurring in 1994–1996 and within months having water temperatures >19°C. With an overall relative biomass of 0.03 ± 0.01 (mean + SE), Microcystis had, at best, a marginal impact upon holistic compositional dynamics. Dynamics of the centric diatom Cyclotella ocellata Pant. and large pennate diatoms dominated compositional dissimilarities both inter‐ and intra‐annually. The environmental variables that corresponded with phytoplankton distributions were similar for the inner and outer bays, and together identified physical forcing and biotic utilization of nutrients as determinants of system‐level biomass patterns. Nonparametric models explained 70%–85% of the variability in Microcystis biovolumes and identified maximal biomass to occur at total phosphorus (TP) concentrations ranging from 40 to 45 μg · L−1. From isometric projections depicting modeled Microcystis/environmental interactions, a TP concentration of <30 μg · L−1 was identified as a desirable contemporary “target” for management efforts to ameliorate bloom potentials throughout mussel‐impacted bay waters.