Sequential Monte Carlo methods under model uncertainty

We propose a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for filtering and prediction of time-varying signals under model uncertainty. Instead of resorting to model selection, we fuse the information from the considered models within the proposed SMC method. We achieve our goal by dynamically adjusting the resampling step according to the posterior predictive power of each model, which is updated sequentially as we observe more data. The method allows the models with better predictive powers to explore the state space with more resources than models lacking predictive power. This is done autonomously and dynamically within the SMC method. We show the validity of the presented method by evaluating it on an illustrative application.

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