Good Just Isn't Good Enough: Humean Chances and Boltzmannian Statistical Physics

Statistical physicists assume a probability distribution over micro-states to explain thermodynamic behavior. The question of this paper is whether these probabilities are part of a best system and can thus be interpreted as Humean chances. I consider two Boltzmannian accounts of the Second Law, viz. a globalist and a localist one. In both cases, the probabilities fail to be chances because they have rivals that are roughly equally good. I conclude with the diagnosis that well-defined micro-probabilities under-estimate the robust character of explanations in statistical physics.

[1]  David Lewis,et al.  Papers in metaphysics and epistemology: Humean Supervenience debugged , 1999 .

[2]  P. Kleingeld,et al.  The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy , 2013 .

[3]  Mathias Frisch.  From Arbuthnot to Boltzmann: The Past Hypothesis, the Best System, and the Special Sciences , 2011, Philosophy of Science.

[4]  R. Frigg,et al.  The Best Humean System for Statistical Mechanics , 2015 .

[5]  C. Callender.  Taking Thermodynamics Too Seriously , 2001 .

[6]  David Lewis,et al.  Papers in metaphysics and epistemology , 1999 .

[7]  C. Hoefer.  The Third Way on Objective Probability: A Sceptic's Guide to Objective Chance , 2007 .

[8]  Jos Uffink,et al.  Subjective probability and statistical physics , 2009 .

[9]  Alan Hájek,et al.  “Mises redux” — Redux: Fifteen arguments against finite frequentism , 1996, Erkenntnis.

[10]  Stephan Hartmann,et al.  Probabilities in physics , 2011 .

[11]  Craig Callender,et al.  The Past Histories of Molecules , 2011 .

[12]  A. Hájek.  Interpretations of Probability , 2011 .

[13]  B. Loewer.  Determinism and Chance , 2001 .

[14]  B. Loewer.  David Lewis’s Humean Theory of Objective Chance , 2004, Philosophy of Science.

[15]  D. Lewis.  A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance , 1980 .

[16]  Roman Frigg,et al.  Chance in Boltzmannian Statistical Mechanics , 2008, Philosophy of Science.

[17]  A. Elga.  Infinitesimal Chances and the Laws of Nature , 2004 .

[18]  R. Frigg,et al.  Explaining Thermodynamic-Like Behavior in Terms of Epsilon-Ergodicity* , 2011, Philosophy of Science.

[19]  David Z. Albert,et al.  Time and Chance , 2000 .

[20]  R. Frigg,et al.  Determinism and Chance from a Humean Perspective , 2010 .

[21]  Christopher J. G. Meacham.  Contemporary Approaches to Statistical Mechanical Probabilities: A Critical Commentary – Part II: The Regularity Approach , 2010 .

[22]  Roman Frigg,et al.  Entropy: a guide for the perplexed , 2011 .

[23]  Eric Winsberg.  Laws and chances in statistical mechanics , 2008 .

[24]  S. Hartmann,et al.  The present situation in the philosophy of science , 2010 .

[25]  Nokman Campbell Sc.D..  Time and Chance , 1996 .

[26]  D. Lewis,et al.  Symposium: Chance and CredenceHumean Supervenience Debugged , 1994 .