Human Factors in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Watch Floor

Abstract : This study evaluates the task and support environments associated with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) watch floor and provides recommendations to improve forecast accuracy. The principal findings indicate that, at this time, factors in the task environment are very likely limiting forecast accuracy. In particular, system-induced practical and cognitive limits on the forecaster s repeatability, i.e., the ability to reproduce an identical forecast given identical information, limits forecast accuracy. Thus, forecasters performance and forecast accuracy could be enhanced by an information integration system with recommended features, by more precise standard operating procedures, and by training and feedback better matched to the task. Further studies are also recommended.

[1]  Eduardo Salas,et al.  Making decisions under stress: Implications for individual and team training. , 1998 .

[2]  Lester E. Carr,et al.  NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Beta Test of the Systematic Approach Expert System Prototype as a Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Aid , 2001 .

[3]  Colin J. McAdie,et al.  Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence , 2007 .

[4]  E. Brunswik.  Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. , 1955, Psychological review.

[5]  Ted L. Tsui,et al.  Evaluation of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Objective Forecast Aids , 1988 .

[6]  Russell L. Elsberry,et al.  Consensus of Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts—Errors versus Spread , 2000 .

[7]  Ward Edwards,et al.  Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processings1 , 1962 .

[8]  A. Kirlik,et al.  Situation awareness as judgment I: Statistical modeling and quantitative measurement , 2006 .

[9]  A. Tversky,et al.  Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness , 1972 .

[10]  Thomas R. Stewart,et al.  Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts , 2001 .

[11]  Jennifer Tsai,et al.  Supporting Joint Human-Computer Judgment Under Uncertainty , 2008 .

[12]  J. Knaff,et al.  Operational Evaluation of a Selective Consensus in the Western North Pacific Basin , 2007 .

[13]  T. R. Stewart,et al.  The Importance of the Task in Analyzing Expert Judgment , 1997 .

[14]  Charles R. Sampson,et al.  Evaluation of long-term trends in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts , 2007 .

[15]  Harold E. Brooks,et al.  TORNADO-WARNING PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST AND FUTURE A Perspective from Signal Detection Theory A Perspective from Signal Detection Theory A Perspective from Signal Detection Theory A Perspective from Signal Detection Theory A Perspective from Signal Detection Theory , 2004 .

[16]  Thomas R. Stewart,et al.  Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts , 1994 .

[17]  Alex Kirlik,et al.  Adaptive Perspectives on Human-Technology Interaction: Methods and Models for Cognitive Engineering and Human-Computer Interaction (Human-Technology Interaction) , 2006 .

[18]  Charles R. Sampson,et al.  A History of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill , 2004 .

[19]  Jennifer Tsai,et al.  Interactive Visualizations to Improve Bayesian Reasoning , 2011 .

[20]  Arthur D. Fisk,et al.  Feedback Augmentation and Part-Task Practice in Training Dynamic Decision-Making Skills , 2004 .

[21]  Arthur D. Fisk,et al.  Modeling and analysis of a dynamic judgment task using a lens model approach , 2000, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part A.

[22]  Christopher D. Wickens,et al.  An introduction to human factors engineering , 1997 .

[23]  W. Casscells,et al.  Interpretation by physicians of clinical laboratory results. , 1978, The New England journal of medicine.