Species richness changes lag behind climate change

Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970–82, but much more slowly than predicted from changes of climate: on average, only one-third of the predicted increase has taken place. The resultant species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species that were able to respond quickly. The time lag is confirmed by the successful introduction of many species to climatically suitable areas beyond their ranges. Our results imply that it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate.

[1]  Johan Olausson,et al.  The Millennium Atlas of Butterflies in Britain and Ireland , 2007 .

[2]  W. Cramer,et al.  The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level , 2004 .

[3]  Stephen J. Hawkins,et al.  Regional climatic warming drives long–term community changes of British marine fish , 2004, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[4]  J. Greenwood,et al.  Comparative Losses of British Butterflies, Birds, and Plants and the Global Extinction Crisis , 2004, Science.

[5]  O. Phillips,et al.  Extinction risk from climate change , 2004, Nature.

[6]  Richard Field,et al.  ENERGY, WATER, AND BROAD‐SCALE GEOGRAPHIC PATTERNS OF SPECIES RICHNESS , 2003 .

[7]  W. Thuiller.  BIOMOD – optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change , 2003 .

[8]  Katrin Böhning-Gaese,et al.  Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Species Richness of Long‐Distance Migrants , 2003 .

[9]  David L. Thomson,et al.  Variable responses to large-scale climate change in European Parus populations , 2003, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[10]  S. Schneider,et al.  Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants , 2003, Nature.

[11]  G. Yohe,et al.  A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems , 2003, Nature.

[12]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg,et al.  Ecological responses to recent climate change , 2002, Nature.

[13]  中村 康弘,et al.  The Millennium Atlas of Butterflies in Britain and Ireland, Asher, J., Warren, M., Fox, R., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G. and Jeffcoate, S., 26×21cm, 433頁(原色図版多数), 発行:Oxford University Press, UK., 発行日:2001年3月, 定価:$50(￡30) , 2001 .

[14]  J. K. Hill,et al.  Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change , 2001, Nature.

[15]  L. Conradt,et al.  Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins , 2001 .

[16]  J. P. Mccarty.  Ecological Consequences of Recent Climate Change , 2001 .

[17]  David B. Roy,et al.  Phenology of British butterflies and climate change , 2000 .

[18]  Hughes,et al.  Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? , 2000, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[19]  Brian Huntley,et al.  Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in a butterfly's range margin , 1999, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[20]  C. Parmesan,et al.  Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming , 1999, Nature.

[21]  C. Thomas,et al.  Nettle‐feeding nymphalid butterflies: temperature, development and distribution , 1997 .

[22]  P. Jones,et al.  The changing temperature of 'Central England' , 1997 .

[23]  Wolfgang Cramer,et al.  The effects of fragmentation and disturbance of rainforest on ground‐dwelling small mammals on the Robertson Plateau, New South Wales, Australia , 1996, Journal of Biogeography.

[24]  W. Cramer,et al.  Special Paper: Modelling Present and Potential Future Ranges of Some European Higher Plants Using Climate Response Surfaces , 1995 .

[25]  M. Nowak,et al.  Habitat destruction and the extinction debt , 1994, Nature.

[26]  M. Morris,et al.  Monitoring butterflies for ecology and conservation , 1993 .

[27]  Patrick J. Bartlein,et al.  VEGETATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SINCE THE LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM , 1991 .

[28]  M. Oates,et al.  A review of butterfly introductions in Britain and Ireland. , 1990 .

[29]  A. Pullin,et al.  Effects of low temperature on diapausing Aglais urticae and Inachis io (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae): Cold hardiness and overwintering survival , 1989 .

[30]  J. Turner,et al.  Does Solar Energy Control Organic Diversity? Butterflies, Moths and the British Climate , 1987 .

[31]  J. Thomas,et al.  Atlas of Butterflies in Britain and Ireland , 1984 .