Estimates of achievable potential for electricity efficiency improvements in U.S. residences - eScholarship

This paper investigates the potential for public policies to achieve electricity efficiency improvements in U.S. residences. This estimate of achievable potential builds upon a database of energy-efficient technologies developed for a previous study estimating the technical potential for electricity savings. The savings potential and cost for each efficiency measure in the database is modified to reflect the expected results of policies implemented between 1990 and 2010. Factors included in these modifications are: the market penetration of efficiency measures, the costs of administering policies, and adjustments to the technical potential measures to reflect the actual energy savings and cost experienced in the past. When all adjustment factors are considered, this study estimates that policies can achieve approximately 45 percent of the technical potential savings during the period from 1990 to 2010. Thus, policies can potentially avoid 18 percent of the annual frozen-efficiency baseline electricity consumption forecast for the year 2010. This study also investigates the uncertainty in best estimate of achievable potential by estimating two alternative scenarios -- a higher penetration, lower cost scenario and a lower penetration, higher cost scenario. These are intended to encompass a range of possibilities for future energy-efficiency policies. The scenarios suggest that policies can achieve between 36 percent and 58 percent of the technical potential electricity savings during the 1990 to 2010 period.