Now What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople

In 1992, a mental-models-based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well-educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general "good environmental practices" and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels.

[1]  G. A. Miller,et al.  Book Review Nisbett, R. , & Ross, L.Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment.Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1980. , 1982 .

[2]  Arnold Vedlitz,et al.  Personal Efficacy, the Information Environment, and Attitudes Toward Global Warming and Climate Change in the United States , 2008, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[3]  Willett Kempton,et al.  Lay perspectives on global climate change1 , 1991 .

[4]  Steven R. Brechin,et al.  Comparative public opinion and knowledge on global climatic change and the Kyoto Protocol: the US versus the world? , 2003 .

[5]  R L Keeney,et al.  A Framework to Guide Thinking and Analysis Regarding Climate Change Policies , 2001, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[6]  H. Pfister,et al.  Mental representation of global environmental risks , 2001 .

[7]  J. Sterman,et al.  Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter , 2007 .

[8]  Willett Kempton,et al.  Environmental Values in American Culture , 1995 .

[9]  S. Brody,et al.  A spatial analysis of local climate change policy in the United States: Risk, stress, and opportunity , 2008 .

[10]  H. Schellnhuber,et al.  Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach , 1999 .

[11]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  COMMUNICATING RISK TO THE PUBLIC , 1992 .

[12]  Anthony A Leiserowitz,et al.  American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous? , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[13]  P. Stern New Environmental Theories: Toward a Coherent Theory of Environmentally Significant Behavior , 2000 .

[14]  S. Ungar,et al.  Knowledge, ignorance and the popular culture: climate change versus the ozone hole , 2000 .

[15]  H. Sandvik Public concern over global warming correlates negatively with national wealth , 2008 .

[16]  Joe Smith Dangerous News: Media Decision Making about Climate Change Risk , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[17]  A. K. Saysel,et al.  Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies , 2009 .

[18]  Tommy Gärling,et al.  Knowledge and Confidence in Knowledge About Climate Change Among Experts, Journalists, Politicians, and Laypersons , 2009 .

[19]  A. Henry Public perceptions of global warming , 2000 .

[20]  Robert E. O'Connor,et al.  Public perceptions of global warming: United States and international perspectives , 1998 .

[21]  R. Stouffer,et al.  Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States , 2009 .

[22]  Seymour Sudman,et al.  Measurement errors in surveys , 1993 .

[23]  Willett Kempton,et al.  How the Public Views Climate Change , 1997 .

[24]  R. J. Bord,et al.  Risk Perceptions, General Environmental Beliefs, and Willingness to Address Climate Change , 1999 .

[25]  J. Sterman Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance , 2008, Science.

[26]  Ragnar E. Löfstedt,et al.  Climate change perceptions and energy-use decisions in Northern Sweden , 1991 .

[27]  M. Boykoff,et al.  Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press☆ , 2004 .

[28]  J. Weiner The Next One Hundred Years: Shaping the Fate of Our Living Earth , 1990 .

[29]  Arnold Vedlitz,et al.  Regional news portrayals of global warming and climate change , 2008 .

[30]  M. G. Morgan,et al.  What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? 1. Mental Models , 1994 .

[31]  P. Simmons,et al.  Reframing nuclear power in the UK energy debate: nuclear power, climate change mitigation and radioactive waste , 2008, Public understanding of science.

[32]  Jon A. Krosnick,et al.  The impact of the fall 1997 debate about global warming on American public opinion , 2000 .

[33]  Jon A. Krosnick,et al.  The Origins and Consequences of democratic citizens' Policy Agendas: A Study of Popular Concern about Global Warming , 2006 .

[34]  A. Leiserowitz Communicating the risks of global warming: American risk perceptions, affective images, and interpretive communities. , 2007 .

[35]  Maxwell T. BoykoV,et al.  Climate change and journalistic norms: A case-study of US mass-media coverage , 2007 .

[36]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  The Risks of Using Nuclear Energy Sources in Space: Some Lay Activists’Perceptions , 1992 .

[37]  Howard J. Herzog,et al.  How aware is the public of carbon capture and storage , 2005 .

[38]  Rupert Klein,et al.  A Method for Computing the Fraction of Attributable Risk Related to Climate Damages , 2008, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[39]  R. Blong,et al.  The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[40]  Irene Lorenzoni,et al.  Dangerous Climate Change: The Role for Risk Research , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[41]  W. Adger,et al.  Eliciting Information from Experts on the Likelihood of Rapid Climate Change , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[42]  Judith Petts,et al.  Rapid Climate Change and Society: Assessing Responses and Thresholds , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[43]  Heat and hot air: influence of local temperature on journalists' coverage of global warming , 2000 .

[44]  David W. Keith,et al.  a serious look at geoengineering , 1992 .

[45]  Nicholas Frank Pidgeon,et al.  Public Views on Climate Change: European and USA Perspectives , 2006 .

[46]  Thomas Dietz,et al.  Personal Values, Beliefs, and Ecological Risk Perception , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[47]  P. Stott,et al.  Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 , 2004, Nature.

[48]  Anthony Leiserowitz,et al.  Cross‐National Comparisons of Image Associations with “Global Warming” and “Climate Change” Among Laypeople in the United States of America and Great Britain , 2006 .

[49]  Albert Gore,et al.  Earth in the Balance , 1992 .

[50]  B. Johnson Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach , 2002 .

[51]  J. Hammitt,et al.  Equity, Efficiency, Uncertainty, and the Mitigation of Global Climate Change , 2000, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.