Expert Judgments : Financial Analysts vs . Weather Forecasters

Two groups of experts, financial analysts and weath r forecasters were asked to predict corresponding events (the value of the Stock Exchan ge I dex and the average temperature of the next month). While accounting for inaccurate ju dgments, weather forecasters attach more importance to the probabilistic nature of the event s predicted than financial analysts. Although both groups of experts revealed the overco nfidence effect, this effect was significantly higher among financial analysts than among the weather forecasters. These results are discussed from the perspective of learn ing from experience.