The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context

This study was prepared in the Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation -wide study of the economic consequences of population ageing. It presents a number of long-term scenarios illustrating the likely domestic and international macroeconomic effects of ageing across the OECD and policies which might ameliorate or reverse underlying tensions. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on the Secretariat’s new international dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model (MINILINK). A “business-as-usual” case is examined in which, without improvements in labour market performance or specific policy adjustments to allow for the pressures of ageing, economic growth is projected to slow significantly over the next 50 years in nearly all OECD countries; world real interest rates remain stable at current levels or even rise, because of the effects of ageing on private savings and the possible build-up of public ... Ce travail constitue une contribution du Departement economique a l’etude realisee au niveau de l’ensemble de l’Organisation sur les consequences economiques du vieillissement des populations. Il presente un certain nombre de scenarios de long-terme illustrant d’une part les effets macroeconomiques probables du processus de viellisssement sur les plans national et international, sur les flux internationaux entre les regions OCDE et non OCDE et d’autre part le role des politiques economiques pour limiter ou eliminer les tensions generees par ce processus. Cette etude integre dans un meme cadre coherent, base sur le nouveau modele international d’equilibre general dynamique du Secretariat (MINILINK), un large ensemble d’elements constitutifs du phenomene de vieillissement. Le cas d’une scenario “a politique inchange” est analyse. Il met en evidence qu’en l’absence d’amelioration des performances du marche du travail ou d’ajustement specifique des politiques pour faire face aux ...

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