Population resilience to an extreme drought is influenced by habitat area and fragmentation in the local landscape

Most studies on the biological impact of climate change have focussed on incremental climate warming, rather than extreme events. Yet responses of species’ populations to climatic extremes may be one of the primary drivers of ecological change. We assess the resilience of individual populations in terms of their sensitivity to- and ability to recover from- environmental perturbation. We demonstrate the method using a model species, the ringlet butterfly Aphantopus hyperantus, and analyse the effects of an extreme drought event using data from 79 British sites over 10 yr. We find that populations crashed most severely in drier regions but, additionally, the landscape structure around sites influenced population responses. Larger and more connected patches of woodland habitat reduced population sensitivity to the drought event and also facilitated faster recovery. Having enough, sufficiently connected habitat appears essential for species’ populations to be resilient to the increased climatic variability predicted under future scenarios.

[1]  T. Brereton,et al.  Heterogeneous landscapes promote population stability. , 2010, Ecology letters.

[2]  H. Andrén,et al.  Effects of habitat fragmentation on birds and mammals in landscapes with different proportions of suitable habitat: a review , 1994 .

[3]  P. Stott,et al.  Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 , 2004, Nature.

[4]  Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático.  Climate change 2007: Synthesis report , 2007 .

[5]  D. Roy,et al.  Butterfly numbers and weather: predicting historical trends in abundance and the future effects of climate change , 2001 .

[6]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high‐resolution grids , 2005 .

[7]  Bridging the gap between general circulation model (GCM) output and biological microenvironments , 1997 .

[8]  D. Tilman,et al.  Drought and biodiversity in Grasslands , 1992, Oecologia.

[9]  H. Pulliam,et al.  Sources, Sinks, and Population Regulation , 1988, The American Naturalist.

[10]  D. Wascher,et al.  Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale levels in research and conservation , 2004 .

[11]  M. Morecroft,et al.  Air and soil microclimates of deciduous woodland compared to an open site , 1998 .

[12]  S. Matter,et al.  Interactions between habitat quality and connectivity affect immigration but not abundance or population growth of the butterfly, Parnassius smintheus. , 2009 .

[13]  Peter Rothery,et al.  Application of generalized additive models to butterfly transect count data , 2001 .

[14]  M. Araújo,et al.  Rethinking species' ability to cope with rapid climate change , 2011 .

[15]  Carsten Thies,et al.  REVIEWS AND SYNTHESES Landscape perspectives on agricultural intensification and biodiversity - ecosystem service management , 2005 .

[16]  Chris D. Thomas,et al.  Correlated extinctions, colonizations and population fluctuations in a highly connected ringlet butterfly metapopulation , 1997, Oecologia.

[17]  Veronica A. J. Doerr,et al.  Connectivity, dispersal behaviour and conservation under climate change: A response to Hodgson et al. , 2011 .

[18]  R. Hill,et al.  The UK Land Cover Map 2000: Construction of a Parcel-Based Vector Map from Satellite Images , 2002 .

[19]  Silvia Dorn,et al.  Drought changes plant chemistry and causes contrasting responses in lepidopteran herbivores , 2011 .

[20]  B. Huntley,et al.  Habitat microclimates drive fine‐scale variation in extreme temperatures , 2011 .

[21]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  Allee effect and population dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly , 1998 .

[22]  V. Wolters,et al.  Impact of summer drought on forest biodiversity: what do we know? , 2006 .

[23]  Dennis D. Murphy,et al.  Sun, slope, and butterflies: topographic determinants of habitat quality for Euphydryas editha , 1988 .

[24]  J. Travis.  Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail , 2003, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[25]  C. Beierkuhnlein,et al.  A new generation of climate‐change experiments: events, not trends , 2007 .

[26]  F. Jiguet,et al.  Community responses to extreme climatic conditions , 2011 .

[27]  J. K. Hill,et al.  Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change , 2001, Nature.

[28]  Nicolas Schtickzelle,et al.  Metapopulation viability analysis of the bog fritillary butterfly using RAMAS/GIS , 2004 .

[29]  S. Schneider,et al.  Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants , 2003, Nature.

[30]  P. Price.  The Plant Vigor Hypothesis and Herbivore Attack , 1991 .

[31]  A. Bourke,et al.  Landscape context not patch size determines bumble-bee density on flower mixtures sown for agri-environment schemes , 2007, Biology Letters.

[32]  P. Rosier,et al.  Edge effects and forest water use: A field study in a mixed deciduous woodland , 2007 .

[33]  Olivier Honnay,et al.  Synergistic effects of an extreme weather event and habitat fragmentation on a specialised insect herbivore , 2009, Oecologia.

[34]  S. John,et al.  Making Space for Nature: A review of England's Wildlife Sites and Ecological Network , 2010 .

[35]  S. Pimm.  The complexity and stability of ecosystems , 1984, Nature.

[36]  J. Marcus Rowcliffe,et al.  Distance sampling and the challenge of monitoring butterfly populations , 2011 .

[37]  B. Goodger,et al.  The quality and isolation of habitat patches both determine where butterflies persist in fragmented landscapes , 2001, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[38]  M. Morecroft,et al.  Effects of drought on contrasting insect and plant species in the UK in the mid-1990s , 2002 .

[39]  C. S. Holling.  Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems , 1973 .

[40]  R. J. Rowe.  Legacies of Land Use and Recent Climatic Change: The Small Mammal Fauna in the Mountains of Utah , 2007, The American Naturalist.

[41]  Brendan A. Wintle,et al.  Habitat area, quality and connectivity: striking the balance for efficient conservation , 2011 .