Risk Analysis and Risk Management

In the Tigris-Euphrates valley about 3200 B.C. there lived a group called the Ashipu. One of their primary functions was to serve as consultants for risky, uncertain, or difficult decisions. If a decision needed to be made concerning a forthcoming risky venture, a proposed marriage arrangement, or a suitable building site, one could consult with a member of the Ashipu. The Ashipu would (1) identify the important dimensions of the problem, (2) identify alternative actions, and (3) collect data on the likely outcomes (e.g., profit or loss, success or failure) of each alternative. The best available data from their perspective were signs from the gods, which the priestlike Ashipu were especially qualified to divine. The Ashipu would then create a ledger. For each alternative, if the signs were favorable, they would enter a plus; if not, they would enter a minus. After the analysis was completed, the Ashipu would recommend the most favorable alternative. The last step was to issue a final report, etched upon a clay tablet (Oppenheim, 1977).

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