Stochastic network technique for technological forecasting

Abstract For complex technological systems, the forecaster can best prepare a forecast for the overall system by making forecasts of the components or subsystems and then combining these forecasts into a composite forecast. This paper presents an analytical technique for obtaining such composite forecasts. The developed procedure is based on an integrated approach, which combines the normative and exploratory approaches to technological forecasting through a stochastic network system, and can also be applied for technological forecasting in general. The presentation of the proposed stochastic network technique for technological forecasting is arranged in three parts. Firstly, the elements of a technological forecasting network are formulated for the purpose of converting the qualitative description of a technological system to a stochastic network form. Then, an analytical procedure for the synthesis of the network is given. Finally, examples are included for the purpose of illustration.

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