Synthesis and new evidence from the PROTECT UK National Core Study: Determining occupational risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality

Introduction: The PROTECT National Core Study was funded by the UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) to investigate routes of transmission for SARS-CoV-2 and variation between settings. Methods: A workshop was organised in Oct 2022.We brought together evidence from five published epidemiological studies that compared risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 mortality by occupation or sector funded by PROTECT relating to three non-overlapping data sets, plus additional unpublished analyses relating to the Omicron period. We extracted descriptive study level data and model results. We investigated risk across four pandemic waves using forest plots for key occupational groups by time-period. Results: Results were largely consistent across different studies with different expected biases. Healthcare and social care sectors saw elevated risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality early in the pandemic, but thereafter this declined and varied by specific occupational subgroup. The education sector saw sustained elevated risks of infection after the initial lockdown period with little evidence of elevated mortality. Conclusions: Increased in risk of infection and mortality were consistently observed for occupations in high risk sectors particularly during the early stage of the pandemic. The education sector showed a different pattern compared to the other high risk sectors, as relative risk of infections remained high in the later phased of the pandemic, although no increased in COVID-19 mortality (compared to low-risk occupations) was observed in this sector in any point during the pandemic.