U.S. Ocean Science Needs for Modeling and Data Synthesis: Status of a Community Assessment

BECAUSE OF SEVERAL major factors, it is timely that the ocean science community examine its future needs for ocean models and data assimilation. 1. First, computational capabilities and ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) continue to develop rapidly and apace. The U.S. community now has several OGCMs that might be considered to be community models in the sense that various scientists--not necessarily involved in their development--wish to utilize them. Other models still under development will reach this status. Initial efforts at ocean data assimilation have begun using these models. Biogeochemical processes are being added to ocean circulation models, and initial attempts at assimilation of biogeochemical data have begun. 2. Second, we have developed unprecedented capabilities to sample the ocean, although not continuously or with adequate global coverage of frequency. However, by-and-large we have not developed the ability to exploit the ocean data being collected by the large (e.g., global change) research programs in sophisticated ways, such as via model data assimilation. These programs are at different stages of development/completion. One [Climate Variability and Predictability/Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (CLIVAR/GOALS)] already is assimilating data in a quasi-operational research mode. Some [the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS)] are nearing the synthesis phase with plans for model-data comparisons and model