Harmonizing the Omnipresence of MCDM in Technology, Society, and Policy

This paper presents historical perspectives on the evolution of the field and discipline of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), followed by recognizing MCDM as a philosophy that inspired the development of theory, methodology, and practice of the art and science of MCDM. Except for a brief epilogue, the balance of the paper presents the following Ten Principles for the practice of MCDM: First Principle: MCDM as a harmonizing discipline in science, technology, society, and policy must be holistic; Second Principle: a common denominator bridges risk analysis and MCDM; Third Principle: models and state variables are central to MCDM; Fourth Principle: MCDM must account for risk of low probability with extreme consequences; Fifth Principle: MCDM must account for knowledge uncertainty and variability uncertainty; Sixth Principle: MCDM must account for emergent forced changes; Seventh Principle: multiple models are required to represent the multiple perspectives of a system; Eighth Principle: the imperativeness of selecting representative objectives and the time domain in MCDM; Ninth Principle: the MCDM process must be holistic, adaptive, incremental, and sustainable; and the Tenth Principle: Phantom System Models are required for the effective practice of MCDM, while building on and adhering to all nine principles.

[1]  J. Collins.  Good to great , 2001, The Game Changer.

[2]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical structures in water resources systems management , 1972 .

[3]  Jacques L. Koko,et al.  The Art and Science of Negotiation , 2009 .

[4]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical Holographic Modeling , 1981, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[5]  Ze-Nian Li,et al.  Pyramid Vision Using Key Features to Integrate Image-Driven Bottom-Up and Model-Driven Top-Down Processes , 1987, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[6]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Phantom System Models for Emergent Multiscale Systems , 2007 .

[7]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Multiobjective Decision Making: Theory and Methodology , 1983 .

[8]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  The Envelope Approach for Multiobjective Optimization Problems , 1985 .

[9]  Y. Haimes,et al.  Multiobjectives in water resource systems analysis: The Surrogate Worth Trade Off Method , 1974 .

[10]  Barry M. Horowitz,et al.  Toward Agile and Resilient Large-Scale Systems: Adaptive Robust National/International Infrastructures , 2008 .

[11]  Robert S. Germain,et al.  Large Scale Systems , 1996 .

[12]  M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell,et al.  Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment , 1996 .

[13]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling , 2002, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[15]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Risk modeling, assessment, and management , 1998 .

[16]  Keith W. Hipel,et al.  Book Review: Risk Modeling, Assessment and Management (Third Edition), by Yacov Y. Haimes , 2010 .

[17]  Yacov Y Haimes,et al.  On the Definition of Resilience in Systems , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[18]  J. Caulfield.  Water Resources Planning, Social Goals, and Indicators: Methodological Development and Empirical Test , 1974 .

[19]  S. Kaplan,et al.  On The Quantitative Definition of Risk , 1981 .

[20]  Y. Haimes,et al.  The envelope approach for multiobjeetive optimization problems , 1987, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[21]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical Multiobjective Analysis of Large-Scale Systems , 1990 .

[22]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Hierarchical analyses of water resources systems : modeling and optimization of large-scale systems , 1977 .

[23]  W. Lowrance,et al.  Of Acceptable Risk: Science and the Determination of Safety , 1976 .

[24]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Total Risk Management , 1991 .