The SIR Epidemic Mode-Based Analysis on the Group Behaviour under the Situation of Unconventional Accident

The group behavior under the situation of unconventional accident should go through a process from embryo,development,large-scale outbreaks to decay basically,making it very similar to the process of an epidemic disease.The group behavior has the characteristics of imitativeness,purposelessness,spontaneity,disorganization and vulnerability.This paper,based on the SIR epidemic model,aims to establish the mathematical model of the group behavior under the situation of the unconventional accident,which shows that transmission rate and immunization rate of harmful information are the basic conditions for the formation of group behavior.The basic measures which should be taken to deal with group behavior are the following: timely disclosing the facts to reduce transmission rate;improving the immunization rate and cure rate through crisis education,and improving pre-immunization capability of the group.