Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging

This paper aims to provide a practical method for forecasting potential container cargo volume that can be induced by a port development project on a container transport network by combining port choice and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The entrance channel improvement plan for Incheon New Port in South Korea is used as a case study. Based on the stated preference data collected from domestic shippers, a discrete choice analysis is performed to estimate the future market share of three major ports in South Korea: Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon. The estimated market share of Incheon New Port is used to forecast its future container volume derived by the ARIMA model and the potential port development scenarios.

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