Probabilistic Forecasts: Some results and speculations

This paper introduces the concept of calibration which refers to the external correspondence between assessed subjective probabilities and hit-rate. Evidence is presented that the psychological processes involved in forecasting future events are different from those involved in evaluating the truth of one’s own knowledge. The implication is that the results of research that has investigated the calibration of probability assessments given to general knowledge questions will not generalize to the real world where uncertainty is located in the future. Finally, future directions for research on probabilistic forecasting are sketched out. This research should lead to effective evaluation of probabilistic forecasts and selection of probabilistic forecasters.

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