System Dynamics Modelling of Emergent and Elective Patient Flows

This paper introduces a tool to assess the impact of organizational strategies that are intended to allocate inpatient beds amongst emergent and elective flows inside a hospital. The tool, based on a System Dynamics model, is able to reproduce the entire system and the relationship between the various flows. In the absence of corrective strategies, an exogenous increase in the rate of arrivals at the Emergency Department (e.g., in winter) can trigger a reinforcing loop increasing elective waits and further overcrowding emergency rooms. The model can be used to discover the best strategies aimed at managing bed capacity between emergent and elective flows. Some preliminary results are given in the context of a public hospital located in Genova (Italy).

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