Extreme value and cluster analysis of European daily temperature series

Time series of daily mean temperature obtained from the European Climate Assessment data set is analyzed with respect to their extremal properties. A time-series clustering approach which combines Bayesian methodology, extreme value theory and classification techniques is adopted for the analysis of the regional variability of temperature extremes. The daily mean temperature records are clustered on the basis of their corresponding predictive distributions for 25-, 50- and 100-year return values. The results of the cluster analysis show a clear distinction between the highest altitude stations, for which the return values are lowest, and the remaining stations. Furthermore, a clear distinction is also found between the northernmost stations in Scandinavia and the stations in central and southern Europe. This spatial structure of the return period distributions for 25-, 50- and 100-years seems to be consistent with projected changes in the variability of temperature extremes over Europe pointing to a different behavior in central Europe than in northern Europe and the Mediterranean area, possibly related to the effect of soil moisture and land-atmosphere coupling.

[1]  Robert G. Quayle,et al.  The 1980 Summer Heat Wave and Drought in Historical Perspective , 1981 .

[2]  S. Planton,et al.  Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events , 2008 .

[3]  P. Naveau,et al.  Amplitude and frequency of temperature extremes over the North Atlantic region , 2006 .

[4]  Andrés M. Alonso,et al.  Clustering Time Series of Sea Levels: Extreme Value Approach , 2010 .

[5]  G. Schrier,et al.  Influence of circulation types on temperature extremes in Europe , 2009 .

[6]  P. Naveau,et al.  Variograms for spatial max-stable random fields , 2006 .

[7]  Rupa Basu,et al.  Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. , 2002, Epidemiologic reviews.

[8]  H. Wanner,et al.  Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880 , 2007 .

[9]  Alan E. Gelfand,et al.  Hierarchical modeling for extreme values observed over space and time , 2009, Environmental and Ecological Statistics.

[10]  José M. C. Pereira,et al.  Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal , 2006 .

[11]  S. Parey.  Extremely high temperatures in France at the end of the century , 2007 .

[12]  Anastasia Spanou,et al.  Heat waves observed in 2007 in Athens, Greece: synoptic conditions, bioclimatological assessment, air quality levels and health effects. , 2010, Environmental research.

[13]  M. Beniston.  The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations , 2004 .

[14]  U. Ulbrich,et al.  The 2003 European summer heatwaves and drought –synoptic diagnosis and impacts , 2004 .

[15]  R. Katz,et al.  Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages , 1992 .

[16]  J. Patz,et al.  Impact of regional climate change on human health , 2005, Nature.

[17]  G. Können,et al.  Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series , 2003 .

[18]  D. Nychka,et al.  Bayesian Spatial Modeling of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels , 2007 .

[19]  Niklaus E. Zimmermann,et al.  Divergent vegetation growth responses to the 2003 heat wave in the Swiss Alps , 2005 .

[20]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century , 2005 .

[21]  A. M. G. Klein,et al.  Trends in Indices of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe, 1946-99 , 2003 .

[22]  Benjamin F. Zaitchik,et al.  Europe's 2003 heat wave: a satellite view of impacts and land–atmosphere feedbacks , 2006 .

[23]  Christoph Schär,et al.  Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes , 2009 .

[24]  Alan E. Gelfand,et al.  Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values , 2010 .

[25]  D. Lüthi,et al.  The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves , 2004, Nature.

[26]  P. Yiou,et al.  Extreme climatic events and weather regimes over the North Atlantic: When and where? , 2004 .

[27]  Anders Moberg,et al.  Daily dataset of 20th‐century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment , 2002 .

[28]  Andrea Toreti,et al.  Changes in temperature extremes over Italy in the last 44 years , 2008 .

[29]  Tom M. L. Wigley,et al.  The effect of changing climate on the frequency of absolute extreme events , 2009 .

[30]  J. V. Revadekar,et al.  Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation , 2006 .

[31]  G. Meehl,et al.  Going to the Extremes , 2006 .

[32]  E. J. Klok,et al.  Updated and extended European dataset of daily climate observations , 2009 .

[33]  P. Jones,et al.  Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901–99 , 2005 .

[34]  Identifying Rogue Air Temperature Stations Using Cluster Analysis of Percentile Trends , 2005 .

[35]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Estimating Extremes in Transient Climate Change Simulations , 2005 .

[36]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  An Introduction to Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observations, Socioeconomic Impacts, Terrestrial Ecological Impacts, and Model Projections* , 2000 .

[37]  Peter Domonkos,et al.  Variability of extreme temperature events in south–central Europe during the 20th century and its relationship with large‐scale circulation , 2003 .

[38]  R. Reiss,et al.  Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values-with applications to insurance , 1997 .

[39]  G. Ren,et al.  Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia‐Pacific Network region, 1955–2007 , 2009 .

[40]  C. Zhou,et al.  On spatial extremes: With application to a rainfall problem , 2008, 0807.4092.

[41]  M. Haylock,et al.  Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century , 2002 .

[42]  Daniel Cooley,et al.  Extreme value analysis and the study of climate change , 2009 .

[43]  D. Stephenson,et al.  Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections , 2007 .