Rule-based Model for Aging-induced Leakage from Water Supply Pipe Network in Beijing City

The leakage from water supply pipe network is difficultly detected and has high maintenance cost.In order to reduce the leakage rate of water supply pipe network,it is necessary to develop a model for leakage from water supply pipe network to establish a reasonable monitoring mode and a maintenance scheme.According to the aging process,the relation between the aging and the leakage rate was analyzed.Decision tree method was applied to develop a rule-based leakage model combining the factors of pipe age and diameter.The Beijing City was selected as the study area and data of 19 years(1987-2005)were analyzed.The results indicate that the ages of aging-induced leakage pipes follow the Weibull distribution.The pipes with 20 ages are more prone to leakage.The developed model was applied to forecast,based on ArcGIS,the aging-induced leakage possibilities of the pipe network in Beijing in 2008.The results are used to support the optimization layout of the leakage detection system.