Improving Investment Decision Making by Expanding Key Knowledge with Real Option Tools

Assessment of investment profitability with discounted cash flows has proven insufficient when industry structures change. Managers need an extended flexibility in decision–making that DCF analyzes cannot offer. Real Option valuation as a method for improving flexibility in investment decisions has been widely researched but less used in business. With good support tools it is possible for managers to cross the threshold to Real Option methods and thinking. Real Option spreadsheet tools support both decision–making processes and business learning. They utilize the flexibility that new key knowledge brings to volatile industry situations and lead to better investment decisions.

[1]  Nicholas Carriero,et al.  Coordination languages and their significance , 1992, CACM.

[2]  Christer Carlsson,et al.  More effective strategic management with hyperknowledge: the Woodstrat case , 1996 .

[3]  A. Dixit,et al.  Chapter 19 – The Options Approach to Capital Investment , 1998 .

[4]  Luehrman Ta,et al.  What's it worth? A general manager's guide to valuation. , 1997 .

[5]  R. Fullér Real option evaluation in fuzzy environment ∗ , 1984 .

[6]  M. Porter From Competitive Advantage to Corporate Strategy , 1989 .

[7]  Andrew B. Whinston,et al.  A Hyperknowledge Framework of Decision Support Systems , 1994, Inf. Process. Manag..

[8]  Steven Pender,et al.  Managing incomplete knowledge: Why risk management is not sufficient , 2001 .

[9]  Nicholas Carriero,et al.  A computational model of everything , 2001, CACM.

[10]  Max P. Michaels,et al.  The real power of real options , 1997 .

[11]  Andrew B. Whinston,et al.  Model management issues and directions , 1993, Decis. Support Syst..

[12]  T. Luehrman What's it worth? A general manager's guide to valuation. , 1997, Harvard business review.

[13]  E. Prescott,et al.  Investment Under Uncertainty , 1971 .

[14]  Christer Carlsson,et al.  Strategic management with a hyperknowledge support system , 1994, 1994 Proceedings of the Twenty-Seventh Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[15]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  Investment Under Uncertainty. , 1994 .

[16]  Soumitra Dutta,et al.  Designing management support systems using an integrative perspective , 1997, CACM.

[17]  Thomas E. Copeland,et al.  How much is flexibility worth , 2005 .