The Influence of Uncertain Map Features on Risk Beliefs and Perceived Ambiguity for Maps of Modeled Cancer Risk from Air Pollution

Maps are often used to convey information generated by models, for example, modeled cancer risk from air pollution. The concrete nature of images, such as maps, may convey more certainty than warranted for modeled information. Three map features were selected to communicate the uncertainty of modeled cancer risk: (i) map contours appeared in or out of focus, (ii) one or three colors were used, and (iii) a verbal-relative or numeric risk expression was used in the legend. Study aims were to assess how these features influenced risk beliefs and the ambiguity of risk beliefs at four assigned map locations that varied by risk level. We applied an integrated conceptual framework to conduct this full factorial experiment with 32 maps that varied by the three dichotomous features and four risk levels; 826 university students participated. Data was analyzed using structural equation modeling. Unfocused contours and the verbal-relative risk expression generated more ambiguity than their counterparts. Focused contours generated stronger risk beliefs for higher risk levels and weaker beliefs for lower risk levels. Number of colors had minimal influence. The magnitude of risk level, conveyed using incrementally darker shading, had a substantial dose-response influence on the strength of risk beliefs. Personal characteristics of prior beliefs and numeracy also had substantial influences. Bottom-up and top-down information processing suggest why iconic visual features of incremental shading and contour focus had the strongest visual influences on risk beliefs and ambiguity. Variations in contour focus and risk expression show promise for fostering appropriate levels of ambiguity.

[1]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  Representation facilitates reasoning: what natural frequencies are and what they are not , 2002, Cognition.

[2]  W. Viscusi,et al.  Smoking Status and Public Responses to Ambiguous Scientific Risk Evidence , 1999 .

[3]  David Howard,et al.  Interface Design for Geographic Visualization: Tools for Representing Reliability , 1996 .

[4]  Paul K J Han,et al.  Perceived Ambiguity About Cancer Prevention Recommendations: Relationship to Perceptions of Cancer Preventability, Risk, and Worry , 2006, Journal of health communication.

[5]  S. Dunwoody,et al.  Proposed model of the relationship of risk information seeking and processing to the development of preventive behaviors. , 1999, Environmental research.

[6]  Christine Vatovec,et al.  The Theory-Based Influence of Map Features on Risk Beliefs: Self-Reports of What Is Seen and Understood for Maps Depicting an Environmental Health Hazard , 2012, Journal of health communication.

[7]  Angela Fagerlin,et al.  Clinical Implications of Numeracy: Theory and Practice , 2008, Annals of behavioral medicine : a publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine.

[8]  Daniel Wartenberg,et al.  Some considerations for the communication of results of air pollution health effects tracking , 2009, Air quality, atmosphere, & health.

[9]  Mark Harrower,et al.  Unclassed Animated Choropleth Maps , 2007 .

[10]  N. Weinstein.  The precaution adoption process. , 1988, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[11]  N. Weinstein.  Effects of personal experience on self-protective behavior. , 1989, Psychological bulletin.

[12]  Andrew Pleasant,et al.  Understanding health literacy: an expanded model. , 2005, Health promotion international.

[13]  D. Budescu,et al.  Preferences and reasons for communicating probabilistic information in verbal or numerical terms , 1993 .

[14]  J. Burt,et al.  The Influence of Mapped Hazards on Risk Beliefs: A Proximity‐Based Modeling Approach , 2012, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[15]  Peter M. Sandman,et al.  Some criteria for evaluating risk messages , 1993 .

[16]  Jonathan Baron,et al.  Ambiguity and rationality , 1988 .

[17]  I. Lipkus.  Numeric, Verbal, and Visual Formats of Conveying Health Risks: Suggested Best Practices and Future Recommendations , 2007, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[18]  Branden B Johnson,et al.  Public Views on Drinking Water Standards as Risk Indicators , 2008, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[19]  Anthony J. Sanford,et al.  Communicating quantities: a review of psycholinguistic evidence of how expressions determine perspectives , 2000 .

[20]  Craig W Trumbo,et al.  Cancer Anxiety and the Perception of Risk in Alarmed Communities , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[21]  Karen Bickerstaff,et al.  PUBLIC UNDERSTANDINGS OF AIR POLLUTION: THE LOCALISATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISK , 2001 .

[22]  P. Slovic,et al.  Numeracy skill and the communication, comprehension, and use of risk-benefit information. , 2007, Health affairs.

[23]  Luc Anselin,et al.  Visualizing Seismic Risk and Uncertainty , 2008, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[24]  W. Klein,et al.  Predictors of Perceived Ambiguity About Cancer Prevention Recommendations: Sociodemographic Factors and Mass Media Exposures , 2009, Health communication.

[25]  V. Reyna,et al.  Fuzzy-trace theory: Some foundational issues , 1995 .

[26]  P. Ubel,et al.  Measuring Numeracy without a Math Test: Development of the Subjective Numeracy Scale , 2007, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[27]  Craig R. Fox,et al.  The Role of Context in the Communication of Uncertain Beliefs , 1998 .

[28]  N. Weinstein,et al.  Predicting Homeowners' Mitigation Responses to Radon Test Data , 1992 .

[29]  P. Ditto,et al.  Motivated Skepticism: Use of Differential Decision Criteria for Preferred and Nonpreferred Conclusions , 1992 .

[30]  P. Ubel,et al.  Communicating side effect risks in a tamoxifen prophylaxis decision aid: the debiasing influence of pictographs. , 2008, Patient education and counseling.

[31]  Cynthia A. Brewer,et al.  Basic mapping principles for visualizing cancer data using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). , 2006, American journal of preventive medicine.

[32]  Michael Verdi,et al.  Learning with Maps and Texts: An Overview , 2002 .

[33]  Joel Huber,et al.  Communication of ambiguous risk information , 1991 .

[34]  P. Ubel,et al.  Validation of the Subjective Numeracy Scale: Effects of Low Numeracy on Comprehension of Risk Communications and Utility Elicitations , 2007, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[35]  Mark Gahegan,et al.  Visualizing Geospatial Information Uncertainty: What We Know and What We Need to Know , 2005 .

[36]  Min-Sun Kim,et al.  Relationships Among Attitudes, Behavioral Intentions, and Behavior , 1993 .

[37]  P. Knapp,et al.  Comparison of two methods of presenting risk information to patients about the side effects of medicines , 2004, Quality and Safety in Health Care.

[38]  W. Klein,et al.  Cancer Risk Elicitation and Communication: Lessons from the Psychology of Risk Perception , 2007, CA: a cancer journal for clinicians.

[39]  V. Reyna,et al.  Fuzzy-trace theory: An interim synthesis , 1995 .

[40]  P. Sheeran.  Intention—Behavior Relations: A Conceptual and Empirical Review , 2002 .

[41]  Colin Camerer,et al.  Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity , 1992 .

[42]  Alex T. Pang,et al.  Approaches to uncertainty visualization , 1996, The Visual Computer.

[43]  B. Tversky,et al.  Cross-cultural and developmental trends in graphic productions , 1991, Cognitive Psychology.

[44]  W. Cleveland,et al.  Graphical Perception: Theory, Experimentation, and Application to the Development of Graphical Methods , 1984 .

[45]  Alan M. MacEachren,et al.  VISUALIZING UNCERTAIN INFORMATION , 1992 .

[46]  Branden B Johnson,et al.  Communicating Air Quality Information: Experimental Evaluation of Alternative Formats , 2003, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[47]  S. Dunwoody,et al.  Exploring lay uncertainty about an environmental health risk , 2007 .

[48]  Melissa L. Finucane,et al.  Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality , 2004, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[49]  P. Slovic,et al.  Presenting uncertainty in health risk assessment: initial studies of its effects on risk perception and trust. , 1995, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[50]  Michelle Cook.  Visual representations in science education: The influence of prior knowledge and cognitive load theory on instructional design principles , 2006 .

[51]  P. Slovic.  Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk‐Assessment Battlefield , 1999, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[52]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  Risk as Feelings , 2001, Psychological bulletin.

[53]  Robert G. Cromley,et al.  Classed versus Unclassed Choropleth Maps: A Question of How Many Classes , 1995 .

[54]  David F. Gillespie,et al.  Problems with error in structural equation models , 1995 .

[55]  P. Gilmartin,et al.  CHOROPLETH MAPS ON HIGH RESOLUTION CRTs / THE EFFECTS OF NUMBER OF CLASSES AND HUE ON COMMUNICATION , 1989 .

[56]  Samuel D Brody,et al.  Examining Localized Patterns of Air Quality Perception in Texas: A Spatial and Statistical Analysis , 2004, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[57]  V. Reyna,et al.  Risk Taking Under the Influence: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory of Emotion in Adolescence. , 2008, Developmental review : DR.

[58]  J. Koehler.  The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges , 1996, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.